Published Research
Published Research
Peer-reviewed papers:
Peace Dividends: criminal governance, rational violence, and economic development. (Job Market Paper). American Political Science Review. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055425101354. Accepted version.
Improving police management boosts economic development: evidence from Brazil. Forthcoming at World Development. Accepted version. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107345.
When Elections Empower Crime: Political Protection and Milícia Expansion in Rio de Janeiro. With Isabella C. Montini. Latin American Politics and Society. https://doi.org/10.1017/lap.2025.10026. Accepted Version.
Police Autonomy, Data-Driven Strategies, and Violence: Evidence from Brazil's Policing Reform. With Alberto Kopittke and Rafael Parfitt. Journal of Development Economics. Pre-print at the SSRN. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103603
The Cross-Border Spillover Effects of Cannabis Regulation in South America (2025). With: Bruno de Assis, Giovanni di Pietra, and Rafael Parfitt. Journal of Quantitative Criminology. DOI: 10.1007/s10940-025-09603-z . Accepted version.
PANTALEÃO, Bruno. ENXUGANDO GELO: apresentando os Microdados das Apreensões de Drogas no Sul do Brasil. Revista Brasileira de Segurança Pública, [S. l.], v. 19, n. 2, p. 122–143, 2025. DOI: 10.31060/rbsp.2025.v19.n2.2034.
PhD Dissertation:
PhD Dissertation at the São Paulo School of Business Administration (FGV-EAESP). Committee: Ciro Biderman (chair), Gabriel Feltran, Joana Monteiro, Jessie Trudeau. Final Version submitted on February 2024. Link for FGV Library.
Title: Descanse o seu gatilho: illegal markets’ hegemony and its peace dividends
Abstract: In this research I investigate the role of criminal governance in promoting Economic Development. I show that a rational and stable regime of criminal governance provided by a drug-trafficking organization promotes an improvement in the amount of jobs and firms in peripheral regions that are under-served by state services. I find that the presence of criminal governance and the hegemony of a single organized crime group in a large metropolitan area is associated with a reduction in homicides and serious interpersonal violence. My findings suggest that the presence of an hegemonic criminal organization allows for more regular and predictable patterns of governance, and that the organizations’ internal structure plays a key role in shaping the relationship between criminals, the population, and the state.
Keywords: Criminal Governance, Economic Development, Social Development, Homicide, Impact Evaluation, RAIS, Geo-processing