On-going research

 

With João Luiz Becker, Jonathan P. Correia, Eduardo Francisco, Roberto Speicys

Abstract

This study proposes a methodological framework based on spatial statistics and heterogeneous data fusion to compare the spatial patterns of crime concentration in São Paulo, Brazil, when rates are normalized by the conventional resident population versus the dynamic floating (or ambient) population. The study uses georeferenced crime data, focusing on cell phone thefts provided by the State Department of Public Security. The results show that while using the census population as the denominator to measure the incidence of crimes would lead one to assume the central areas are those with the highest risk for cellphone theft, once we adjust for floating population, it is clear that central areas observe less relative crime than the peripheral areas of São Paulo. Using the Getis-Ord Gi* hotspot analysis to detect spatial clusters of high and low robbery intensity, we demonstrate that incorporating dynamic mobility measures into crime analysis is essential for accurately identifying criminogenic hotspots and informing effective urban planning and public safety policies.


With Gabriel Feltran. Revise & Resubmit at the International Journal of Drug Policy

Abstract

Background: São Paulo has experienced a sustained decline in drug-related homicides since the beginning of the 2000s, diverging from national trends. This study investigates how drug-market governance mechanisms implemented by the criminal faction Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) contributed to this reduction.

Methods: Drawing on ethnographically informed analysis supported by descriptive statistics and causal inference methods, we examine PCC’s evolving regulation of illicit markets in São Paulo and its impacts on violence in São Paulo.

Results: Two key governance strategies underpin this transformation: (i) informal justice systems that adjudicate disputes, enforce a monopoly on lethal force, and limit firearm circulation; and (ii) structured oversight of retail drug markets through standardized pricing and bribing, registration of sales points, and formalized debt settlement procedures. These mechanisms stabilized property rights, reduced competitive violence, and institutionalized non-lethal dispute resolution.

Conclusion: By converting São Paulo’s drug trade from a fragmented market into a regulated system, the PCC curtailed incentives for violence. The findings challenge the notion that illicit markets are inherently violent, showing instead that lethal outcomes depend on the degree of institutionalized governance.


With Gabriel Feltran

Abstract

This article revisits Verkko’s classical insight that homicide rates rise with the proportion of male victims, applying it to contemporary high-violence settings. Drawing on microdata from Brazil, Colombia, the United States, and French overseas departments, we argue that short-term variation in homicide rates is not simply demographic, but reflects deeper structural inequalities that drive differential exposure to organized criminal markets. We develop and test a theory in which young, racialized, and socioeconomically marginalized individuals are disproportionately drawn into illegal markets due to exclusion from formal labor opportunities, and are consequently at higher risk of lethal victimization. Using a combination of descriptive analyses and multivariate regressions, we show that victim characteristics—particularly the intersection of sex, age, race, and education—consistently predict higher homicide rates across diverse contexts. We further demonstrate that homicides involving firearms, unknown perpetrators, and younger victims are associated with disputes over criminal rents, reinforcing the instrumental logic of violence in these environments. These findings challenge conventional interpretations of demographic correlates as static risk factors, reframing them instead as proxies for differential exposure to illicit economies. The results have direct implications for violence prevention policies, emphasizing the need for targeted interventions that address structural exclusion and criminal market participation.


With Eduardo Mello, Daniel Rio Tinto, Lucas Borba, and Dani Nedal.

Best Paper award at REPAL 2025

Abstract

Extant literature posits a negative correlation between state capacity and criminality: criminal organizations thrive where the state is absent or weak. Conversely, increasing state presence in the form of local public or club goods, services, and social policies may reduce opportunities for criminal actors and individual incentives for citizens to engage in criminal activity. In this article, we argue that state presence does not necessarily lead to less crime and that under certain conditions it can backfire and produce more crime. We focus on the rollout of a large-scale social housing project in Brazil to examine how organized criminal groups exploit state initiatives to embed within communities, establishing persistent criminal activities ranging from the direct appropriation of housing units to the long-term exploitation of beneficiaries. We use a mixed-methods approach that integrates regression discontinuity designs, difference in-differences models, and qualitative interviews with policymakers and stakeholders. We find that social housing has a causal effect on violence, as criminal organizations actively and aggressively seek to acquire and maintain control of housing developments and of the populations these projects were meant to serve. This paper contributes to the literature on criminal governance, social policy, and state capacity by demonstrating that well-intentioned state interventions can unintentionally enable criminal actors and entrench parallel forms of governance. 


With Sofia Amaral and Daniel Rio Tinto

Abstract

In this project, we analyze the role of legal commodities as drivers of violence under weak rule of law and colonial behavior. We explore the relationship between international gold prices, permits for gold exploration in the Brazilian Amazon basin, and violence against racialized peasants groups. We argue that gold-driven violence in the Amazon basin is a form of colonial violence because it is (1) motivated by foreign prices, (2) directed against indigenous or traditional communities that lack land titles, and (3) relies on state's indifference and eagerness to profit from mineral extraction. We articulate archival research with an instrumental variable approach and show that gold prices and gold mining activities drive homicides and land-based conflict in the Brazilian Amazon.


With Eduardo Mello, and Juliana Camargo

Funded by IPA P&R, FGV-RPCAP